V-Day...

Yes, today is V-day,and it's time to post a few predictions about the outcome of the provincial election.

It's going to be an interesting race, especially in Calgary. Province wide I think the Liberals are going to take a lot of seats in Calgary, and are also going to gain ground in Edmonton and Red Deer. Rural Alberta is still going to show their support of Stelmach, with perhaps a few Wild Alliance candidates thrown in for variety.

Provincially we are going to see a couple of surprises, with one or two more NDP and possibly even a green going to the legislature - possibly even out of rural ridings.

The results are going to depend on who goes to vote - if the PCs have managed to identify and motivate their supporters, we're going to see the battle wage a bit fiercer, but I think a lot of people who traditionally support the PCs are getting so disgusted that they are either going to stay home (and effectively cast their vote against the PCs), or they are going to voice their displeasure on the ballot in graphite.

This race is a hard one to predict - but as with every election, I put forth my predictions on the morning of election day ...

Calgary Bow
Alana Delong (PC) retaining her seat, Greg Flanagan (Lib) taking second place within 10% of the vote

Calgary Buffalo
This one goes to Kent Hehr of the Liberals, Sean Chu (PC) taking secnd place within 15% of the vote.

Calgary Cross
Yvonne Fritz keeps this one, with Rob Reinhold (Lib) following within 10% of the vote.

Calgary Currie
Dave Taylor (Lib) keeps his seat, with Arthur Kent (PC) following within 5% of the vote

Calgary East
Bill Harvey (Lib) takes it away from Moe Amery (PC) within 5% of the vote.

Calgary Egmont
Perhaps one of the most interesting ridings. Cathie Williams (Lib) is going to take it, followed by Craig Chandler (Ind) and Jonathan Denis in third. Cathie is going to take it with 10% of the vote, but Jonathan and Craig will be within 5% of each other.

Calgary Elbow
Craig Cheffins (Lib) is going to keep his seat, with Alison Redford (PC) following behind within 5% of the vote.

Calgary Fish Creek
This one goes to Laura Shutiak (Lib) with Heather Forsythe following within 5% of the vote.

Calgary Foothills
Mike Robinson (Lib) is going to take the seat away from Len Webber (PC) within 10% of the vote.

Calgary Fort
Carole Oliver (Lib) is going to squeak in front of Wayne Cao (PC) with Julie Hrdlicka (NDP) not far behind. It’s going to be tight - perhaps even going to a recount.

Calgary Glenmore
Ron Stevens (PC) will keep his seat, followed by Avalon Roberts (Lib) within 10% of the vote.

Calgary Hays
Bill Kurtze (Lib) is going to narrowly take this one away from Arthur Johnston (PC) within 5% of the vote.

Calgary Lougheed
Lori Czerwinski (Lib) is going to squeeze out David Rodney (PC) within 5% of the vote

Calgary McKay
Tianna Melnyk (Lib) is going to take it, with Teresa Woo-Paw (PC) a very close second within % of the vote.

Calgary McCall
This time it goes to Darshan Kang (Lib) with Shiraz Shariff (PC) coming in second within 10% of the vote.

Calgary Montrose
Michael Embaie (Lib) is going to take this sat, followed by Al Brown (NDP), and then Manmeet Bhullar (PC) within 15% of the vote.

Calgary Mountain View
David Swann (Lib) is going to retain his seat, followed by Leah Lawrence (PC) within 10% of the vote.

Calgary North Hill
Pat Murray (Lib) takes it this time with Kyle Fawcett (PC) coming in second within 10% of the vote.

Calgary North West
Lindsay Blackett (PC) outstrips Dale Martin D’Silva (Lib) within 10% of the vote.

Calgary Nose Hill
Neil Brown (PC) is going to keep his seat, followed by Len Borowski (Lib) within 10% of the vote.

Calgary Shaw
Cindy Ady (PC) is a hard one to unseat, with John Roggeveen chasing hard at her heels within 15% of the vote. John is going to make significant gains on the difference between their votes from the last election - a victory of a sort in a Tory stronghold.

Calgary Varsity
Harry Chase (Lib) is going to keep his seat, followed by Jennifer Diakiw (PC) and then Tim Stock-Bateman (NDP) within 10% of the vote.

Calgary West
Beth Gignac (PC) is going to take it from Ron Liepert (PC) within 5% of the vote.

I can't remember many elections where the parties seem to be gearing up this early. Although the writ hasn't been dropped yet, doors have been knocked, literature delivered, and a small but steady core of people have been promoting their political aims.

What always surprises me, however, is how few people actually get involved in politics - at least on the riding level when it comes to an election. They claim to have specific viewpoints and a vested interest in which party is elected, they express their opinions over coffee with friends and when candidates come to the door, but a lot of them are so apathetic that they don't even get out and vote.

Certainly, a lot of people would prefer to stay indoors with a cup of hot cocoa (especially given the wintery weather in Calgary this weekend), but it seems that a core of people will be out dedicating themselves to promoting their party and their candidate.

Much like any other volunteer group, you consistantly see the same core group of volunteers stepping forwards each election, but it's a good way to meet some like minded people, make some friends and forward your own political agenda by ensuring that your candidate is represented in the best manner possible.

Certainly some of the parties - like the PCs have a lot of money to throw at an election. They can purchase teams of door knockers and telephoners (much like our friend Chandler did on his nomination campaign). What really irritates me is the feeling that I get from them - that they believe the election is up for purchase. And that's just wrong. It shouldn't be a question of who has the most money to invest in the campaign, it should be about the right people getting elected because of their strongly held beliefs and ideals.

I went on a real tear about this during the recent municipal election - Calgarians only had two real contenders for the mayoral seat because it was about the almighty dollar. The million dollar job - where the salary doesn't even come close to what is invested in the campaign.

Certainly, when it comes to a provincial run the dollars seem a lot lower (and I know that this surprises a lot of people). But a lot of people vote for the party instead of the person. And this is where Calgarians need to step forward and make a difference. They need to learn more about their candidates, and if they're in the mood for a REAL change, to get involved promoting that party. Especially if your beliefs trend Liberal.

I don't make a big secret out of the fact that I'm not likely to vote Conservative - I don't believe that they have done a good job governing our province, and that hasn't changed in the past 27 years. I want to see change, and I believe that Liberal is the key to change. Certainly the Green Party and the NDP have some very strong appealing candidates like Grant Neufeld (Green) and Julie Hrdlicka (NDP), but the truth is that the Liberals have a real chance of creating a government, or at the very least creating a strong opposition that will actually get the business of government back on track where it needs to be. I'm not happy with the Alberta that I live in - but I see the opportunity for change coming up this spring, just as it does every four years. And, to use a word that has been overused in the US primaries and secondaries - this brings hope to the table. Hope for change. Hope for accountability. Hope for a healthy and sustainable future.

My ideal government is not sitting Liberals in all ridings - I'd like to see the voices of all parties represented. (Certainly proportional representation has an appeal). We need the voice of the opposition, and to hear dissenting opinions. It's what keeps government honest - and what keeps the debate on the table where we need it to happen.

So what are you waiting for? Go out and meet your local candidate. They'd love to welcome you to their team as a volunteer- and if you don't know who your candidate is please stay tuned as I will be posting some more detailed information riding by riding - at least on the Calgary front.

Don't have time to volunteer? There are other ways you can get involved as well.

Start talking to your friends and neighbours about politics and don't be afraid to share your views.

Put up a sign on your lawn and fly your colours proudly.

For far too many years Alberta has had closet Liberals because of the fear of what the neighbours might think. I have talked to people who indicate they are going to vote Liberal, but are not willing to put up a sign because they are worried about the neighbours. Really? I want to tell them that their neighbours said the exact same thing. That road could be a sea of red (and we're not talking in support of the Flames here) - but each person stays quiet because they have been cowed into silence by the conservatives. (It feels like bullying to me).

And if you DO put up that sign, look to it with pride and recognize that the bullies might kick it over and play silly-buggers with it. But you have won if you pick it up, dust it off, and carry on proud to show your beliefs.

A quick visit to the ALP website (www.albertaliberal.ca) brings up the list of nominated candidates for Alberta. Take a close look - we are going to see some of these people representing us as our next MLA. Go visit your candidate and find out about getting involved.

Battle River-Wainwright: Horst Schreiber
Calgary-Bow: Greg Flanagan
Calgary-Buffalo: Kent Hehr
Calgary-Currie: Dave Taylor
Calgary-Egmont: Cathie Williams
Calgary-Elbow: Craig Cheffins
Calgary-Fish Creek: Laura Shutiak
Calgary-Foothills: Mike Robinson
Calgary-Fort: Carole Oliver
Calgary-Glenmore: Avalon Roberts
Calgary-Hays: Bill Kurtze
Calgary-Lougheed: Lori Czerwinski
Calgary-Mackay: Tianna Melnyk
Calgary-McCall: Darshan Kang
Calgary-Mountain View: David Swann
Calgary-North Hill: Pat Murray
Calgary-North West: Dale D’Silva
Calgary-Nose Hill: Len Borowski
Calgary-Shaw: John Roggeveen
Calgary-Varsity: Harry Chase
Calgary-West: Beth Gignac
Cypress-Medicine Hat: Dick Mastel
Drumheller-Stettler: Tom Dooley
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview: Dawit Isaac
Edmonton-Calder: Jim Kane
Edmonton-Castle Downs: Chris Kibermanis
Edmonton-Centre: Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore: Bill Bonko
Edmonton-Ellerslie: Bharat Agnihotri
Edmonton-Gold Bar: Hugh MacDonald
Edmonton-Glenora: Bruce Miller
Edmonton-Manning: Sandeep Dhir
Edmonton-McClung: Mo Elsalhy
Edmonton-Meadowlark: Debbie Cavaliere
Edmonton-Mill Creek: Aman Gill
Edmonton-Mill Woods: Weslyn Mather
Edmonton-Riverview: Kevin Taft
Edmonton-Rutherford: Rick Miller
Edmonton-Whitemud: Nancy Cavanaugh
Lethbridge-East: Bridget Pastoor
Little Bow: Everett Tanis
Medicine Hat: Karen Charlton
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: Tony Vonesch
St. Albert: Jack Flaherty
Sherwood Park: Louise Rogers
Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert: Ray Boudreau
Stony Plain: Bill Fraser
Strathcona: Jon Friel
Wetaskiwin-Camrose: Keith Elliott
West Yellowhead: Lisa Higgerty

Too Many Elections?

As we head into the provincial election (assuming, of course, that it will be called in February for the March timeframe), we hear rumblings of a Federal Election, the news is filled with reports of primiaries and secondaries in the states, and the signs have just disappeared from the streets from our Municipal run.

It seems a bit much - all in a year, all at once.

But this time the parties seem to be more prepared. They have candidates in place (for the most part), signs and brochures are just waiting for the election date to be called so that the proper date can be inscribed, and supporters are shining their shoes, ready to go to the door in droves.

But even though the writ hasn't been dropped, we are already seeing people at the doors, brochures being dropped off and candidates being promoted. It's rather refreshing to see the eager faces who are starting well before the election - it says that they have a lot to say, and that they have a strong belief in what they have to offer.

People have been rumbling that it is time for a change. Stelmach does not have the popularity that Klein once held - and he never will (just does not have the same charisma). And everyone has a change to offer. Everyone seems to have fresh ideas, and everyone is offering a change. Even the Conservatives.

Back up here - the Conservatives? Isn't this the party that has been in power in this province since 1971? Please, do correct me if I'm wrong, but how is voting in Conservatives voting for change?

Certainly, the banner of Conservative seems to have expanded. There are a number of members of the party who seem to have gotten confused between the policies and beliefs of the Wild Rose Party and that of the Conservatives; the right wingers who think that they can ride the previous success of the Conservatives right up to Edmonton. (Unless they are in a rural riding, it's not likely to happen.) Although Stelmach did show a bit of spine and indicated that there are limits to what the party will accept - and Chandler wasn't on the agenda. On the other side of the party - we have small "c" conservatives, the older, gentler style of PC that actually gave a thought to education, healthcare and the wellbeing of the province. Not exactly the portrait of a cohesive party, is it?

So, what is the sales strategy of the conservatives? Which candidate do we listen to - who is preaching the party line, and who is preaching their own line? And how many of these are being true to their own beliefs? (I guess here we have to grudgingly give a nod to Chandler - after all, he holds true to his own beliefs even when they run roughshed over the basic human rights of others).

Is it time for a change? It think it is. But let's go for a real change this time. The Conservatives have cried wolf one time too many - do we really want to believe them this time when they claim "we've changed!" Leaders - yes, policies - no. When we hear the conservatives putting forth their new plans about homelessness, education and health care - let's give pause to consider just where these new plans and policies came from. They were put forward by the Liberals. Give credit where credit is due.

Personally, I have ideas about the Alberta that I want to see. I want to see schools without roofs caving in. I want to see people able to find a roof to put over their head. I want to see support for the disabled. And I think we can realisticially do it within a budget without bankrupting the province - rather than just throw band-aid solutions and dollars at a problem that will fix it for a month or two, can't we invest that money in a reasonably considered plan that will solve these problems for good.

This election, I will put the Liberal sign on my lawn again - and I hope to see some more of my neighbours step forward with the same support for the Alberta that they want to see. And maybe - just maybe, if we can all step backwards and forget about voting the way our parents have always voted; and voting for what we have known all of our lives, we can see some real change.

Bad Press for Stelmach on the Eve of Provincial Election

Another election is looming on the horizon, and we're seeing a lot of activity out of parties in Alberta.

Quite honestly, I think that "honest Ed" is going to be in trouble here, as we see a shift in Alberta from Conservative Sheep, to having a decent opposition - or maybe even a minority government situation.

This will be an interesting election to watch. And it's starting out as a bit of a gong show.

Everyone remembers the fun and exciting times a few years ago when Jason Kenney stood up in Parliment during a discussion centering around registration of domain names. Don Boudria was a bit upset that his name had been registered as a domain and used by the family values crowd.

Kenney stood up and opened his mouth mading a very poorly thought out comment to the tune of "if you're stupid enough not to register your name as a domain, you get what is coming to you.". Quoting Hansard:

Mr. Jason Kenney (Calgary Southeast, CPC): Mr. Speaker, the only additional
element that the hon. member has brought to the Chair's attention relates to
a matter which is in no way, shape or form within the purview of this House
or your honour and it never has been, and hopefully never will be, that is
to say, the registration of domain names on the World Wide Web.I understand
my hon. friend opposite is learned with respect to parliamentary procedure
but I must infer from his remarks that he is stupefiedly ignorant about the
commercial practices on the Internet.¹ (1510)

Rick Mercer, of This Hour fame was listening, and he immediately checked out domains, and decided that Kenney was speaking wisely... and imemdiately registered jasonkenney.org. Initially it was pointed to a Marxist site, then to Egale Canada, and today points to Micheal Chong MLA (for some inexplicable reason). The full story can be found on Mercer's Blog.

Well, it seems that the saga of the internet gets better. Our esteemed premier discovered that someone had registered HIS name, edstelmach.ca and was using it. So, instead of approaching the individual in question with an offer to purchase it, he immediately paid his lawyer to send a threatening letter to a 24 year old university student. (Somehow I don't think that he's going to get it back now!). Very ill advised, and well covered in the media, who took a lot of sympathy with the student. It's in the news media (who are predicting that Stelmach is going to lose this fight), on the radio, and it even made BoingBoing - which is rare for something originating from Canadian Politics.

The student, a well known Alberta Blogger named Dave Cournoyer who I frequently read, has since pointed the blog at Harry Strom's entry in Wikipedia (former premier of Alberta, Social Credit Party prior to the election of the Conservatives. It is my understanding that previously the student had it going to his own blog (http://www.daveberta.ca/), and had earned $70 worth of ad revenue since registering it in the fall - something that Stelmach wanted paid to him as well (As if the tax system wasn't bad enough, now let's take money from enterprising university students and candy from babies!)

Of course the recent contreversy over the story would have really punched up visits to the stelmech website that Dave registered, leaving me to wonder if Dave ought to be talking to Stelmach's lawyers about lost ad revenues over this time period where he graciously redirected the name away from his blog and towards Wikipedia instead.

It really makes you wonder at just how clueless a person has to be to follow such an ill advised course of action.

The election is a gong show - and it's started early! People are laughing at Stelmach and wondering why he is acting the part of a buffoon - a role previously enjoyed by his predecessor King Ralph for many years.