It's going to be an interesting race, especially in Calgary. Province wide I think the Liberals are going to take a lot of seats in Calgary, and are also going to gain ground in Edmonton and Red Deer. Rural Alberta is still going to show their support of Stelmach, with perhaps a few Wild Alliance candidates thrown in for variety.
Provincially we are going to see a couple of surprises, with one or two more NDP and possibly even a green going to the legislature - possibly even out of rural ridings.
The results are going to depend on who goes to vote - if the PCs have managed to identify and motivate their supporters, we're going to see the battle wage a bit fiercer, but I think a lot of people who traditionally support the PCs are getting so disgusted that they are either going to stay home (and effectively cast their vote against the PCs), or they are going to voice their displeasure on the ballot in graphite.
This race is a hard one to predict - but as with every election, I put forth my predictions on the morning of election day ...
Calgary Bow
Alana Delong (PC) retaining her seat, Greg Flanagan (Lib) taking second place within 10% of the vote
Calgary Buffalo
This one goes to Kent Hehr of the Liberals, Sean Chu (PC) taking secnd place within 15% of the vote.
Calgary Cross
Yvonne Fritz keeps this one, with Rob Reinhold (Lib) following within 10% of the vote.
Calgary Currie
Dave Taylor (Lib) keeps his seat, with Arthur Kent (PC) following within 5% of the vote
Calgary East
Bill Harvey (Lib) takes it away from Moe Amery (PC) within 5% of the vote.
Calgary Egmont
Perhaps one of the most interesting ridings. Cathie Williams (Lib) is going to take it, followed by Craig Chandler (Ind) and Jonathan Denis in third. Cathie is going to take it with 10% of the vote, but Jonathan and Craig will be within 5% of each other.
Calgary Elbow
Craig Cheffins (Lib) is going to keep his seat, with Alison Redford (PC) following behind within 5% of the vote.
Calgary Fish Creek
This one goes to Laura Shutiak (Lib) with Heather Forsythe following within 5% of the vote.
Calgary Foothills
Mike Robinson (Lib) is going to take the seat away from Len Webber (PC) within 10% of the vote.
Calgary Fort
Carole Oliver (Lib) is going to squeak in front of Wayne Cao (PC) with Julie Hrdlicka (NDP) not far behind. It’s going to be tight - perhaps even going to a recount.
Calgary Glenmore
Ron Stevens (PC) will keep his seat, followed by Avalon Roberts (Lib) within 10% of the vote.
Calgary Hays
Bill Kurtze (Lib) is going to narrowly take this one away from Arthur Johnston (PC) within 5% of the vote.
Calgary Lougheed
Lori Czerwinski (Lib) is going to squeeze out David Rodney (PC) within 5% of the vote
Calgary McKay
Tianna Melnyk (Lib) is going to take it, with Teresa Woo-Paw (PC) a very close second within % of the vote.
Calgary McCall
This time it goes to Darshan Kang (Lib) with Shiraz Shariff (PC) coming in second within 10% of the vote.
Calgary Montrose
Michael Embaie (Lib) is going to take this sat, followed by Al Brown (NDP), and then Manmeet Bhullar (PC) within 15% of the vote.
Calgary Mountain View
David Swann (Lib) is going to retain his seat, followed by Leah Lawrence (PC) within 10% of the vote.
Calgary North Hill
Pat Murray (Lib) takes it this time with Kyle Fawcett (PC) coming in second within 10% of the vote.
Calgary North West
Lindsay Blackett (PC) outstrips Dale Martin D’Silva (Lib) within 10% of the vote.
Calgary Nose Hill
Neil Brown (PC) is going to keep his seat, followed by Len Borowski (Lib) within 10% of the vote.
Calgary Shaw
Cindy Ady (PC) is a hard one to unseat, with John Roggeveen chasing hard at her heels within 15% of the vote. John is going to make significant gains on the difference between their votes from the last election - a victory of a sort in a Tory stronghold.
Calgary Varsity
Harry Chase (Lib) is going to keep his seat, followed by Jennifer Diakiw (PC) and then Tim Stock-Bateman (NDP) within 10% of the vote.
Calgary West
Beth Gignac (PC) is going to take it from Ron Liepert (PC) within 5% of the vote.
11 comments:
I'm going to speculate in very broad terms:
Urban Ridings (esp. Calgary and Edmonton):
- A sizable swing away from the PCs, with the Liberals picking up most of the benefits.
Rural Ridings: Mostly will continue to vote status quo, and a few will swing towards WrAP
Net Result: A minority or very weak minority. Probably PC controlled, possibly with a WrAP balance of power if it is a minority. If it's a Liberal government, probably a minority with an NDP balance of power.
Things I'd like to see:
(1) A few Greens in the Leg. - this is a party too often overlooked and never receiving enough attention.
(2) Just enough WrAP members elected to continue further eroding the PC base.
(3) Ed Stelmach losing his seat.
Denis ran away with Calgary-Egmont.
The PC's ran away with far more of the province than they deserved.
Alberta's new mascot is clearly the Sheeple.
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